O predstoyashem stolknovenii komety Shumeikerov-Levi s Yupiterom2.03.1994 15:28 | Vselennaya i My
A.Martys'
26 marta 1993 g. v Cirkulyare Mezhdunarodnogo Astronomicheskogo Soyuza (IAU Circ. 5725) bylo soobsheno ob otkrytii Karolinoi i Evgeniem Shumeikerami sovmestno s Devidom Levi (C. S. Shoemaker, E. M. Shoemaker, D. H. Levy) komety Shoemaker-Levy 9 (1993e). Na negativah kometa vyglyadela kak shtrih dlinoi okolo 1'. Dzh. Skotti (J. V. Scotti), ispol'zuya PZS-skanner Sluzhby Neba observatorii Kitt Pik obnaruzhil u komety pyat' kondensacii, raspolozhennyh vdol' pryamoi linii. Lu (Luu) i Dzhevitt (Jewitt) soobshili (IAU Circ. 5730), chto na poluchennom imi 27 marta 1993 g. PZS-izobrazhenii komety s 2.2-m teleskopom na Observatorii Mauna Kea vidno, po krainei mere, 17 otdel'nyh yader rastyanutyh v dlinu na 50" v pozicionnom ugle 77-257°. A. Kochran (A. Cochran, IAU Circ. 5732) 28 marta 1993 goda na 2.7-m teleskope observatorii Mak Donal'd poluchila spektr komety v diapazone 300-570 nm. V spektre otsutstvovali kakie libo emissii. Nepreryvnyi spektr byl ploskim. Slabaya kondensaciya nablyudalas' na zapadnom konce izobrazheniya kometnogo spektra. Brian Marsden (B. Marsden, IAU Circ. 5906) rasschital sleduyushie elementy orbity dlya naiyarchaishego sed'mogo po klassifikacii Dzhevitta (Jewitt et al., 1993, Bull. Am. Astr. Soc. 25, 1042) yadra komety (tabl. 1).
V Elektronnom cirkulyare malyh planet (MREC 1993-X04) byli privedeny uluchshennye elementy orbit dlya ostal'nyh yader komety. Vychisleniya po etim elementam pokazyvayut, chto kometa sblizhalas' s Yupiterom na minimal'nuyu distanciyu 0.0006 AU (t.e. men'she predela Rosha) v moment 1992 July 7.8 UT. Po vidimomu, vblizi etogo momenta i proizoshlo razrushenie komety pod deistviem prilivnyh sil. V pol'zu etogo govorit i harakter rashozhdeniya vtorichnyh yader komety. Lyuboi drugoi mehanizm razrusheniya dal by izotropnoe raspredelenie skorostei oblomkov pervichnogo yadra. Sleduyushee sblizhenie s Yupiterom proizoidet v konce iyulya 1994 na minimal'noe rasstoyanie 0.0002 AU (IAU Circ. 5893), a tak kak radius Yupitera sostavlyaet 0.0005 AU, to esli dal'neishee utochnenie orbity komety ne prineset sil'nyh izmenenii, po-vidimomu, proizoidet stolknovenie komety s Yupiterom. Yadra komety budut stalkivat'sya s Yupiterom v techenie pyati sutok. V tablice 2 privedeny rezul'taty raschetov momentov stolknovenii 9 yader s Yupiterom, a takzhe ih vzaimnoe otnositel'noe raspolozhenie v "yadernom poezde", kotoryi budet imet' dlinu k 17 iyulya 14 uglovyh minut v pozicionnom ugle 61-241°.
Esli predpolozhit', chto do razrusheniya kometa 1993e imela takie zhe razmery, kak
i kometa Galleya (dlya prostoty pust' eto shar radiusom 4-5 km), a plotnost' kometnogo
veshestva 2500 kg/m3, to pri raschetnoi skorosti vstrechi komety s Yupiterom
64 km/s, v priblizhenii absolyutno neuprugogo udara vydelitsya obshaya energiya 
Dzh.
K sozhaleniyu, stolknovenie komety s Yupiterom proizoidet na nevidimoi storone blizko k utrennemu terminatoru, t.e. eto sobytie neposredstvenno budet nedostupno nablyudeniyam s Zemli. No cherez neskol'ko chasov, posle stolknoveniya Yupiter povernetsya i mozhno budet nablyudat' izmeneniya proizoshedshie v ego atmosfere.
Dlya utochneniya momentov stolknoveniya s Yupiterom otdel'nyh yader neobhodimy ih tochnye astrometricheskie nablyudeniya. Nablyudateli, raspolagayushie dlinnofokusnymi instrumentami i PZS-priemnikami, mogli by sdelat' mnogo poleznogo dlya resheniya etoi problemy. V tablice 3 privedena efemerida dlya sed'mogo yadra komety, rasschitannaya avtorom po privedennym vyshe elementam orbity. Zdes' Date - moment po zemnomu dinamicheskomu vremeni, a i d - pryamoe voshozhdenie i sklonenie sootvetstvenno, D - geocentricheskoe rasstoyanie, r - geliocentricheskoe rasstoyanie, m1 - vizual'nyi blesk komety (summarnyi dlya vseh yader), E - elongaciya, j - ugol fazy. Bolee podrobnye efemeridy dlya nablyudenii dannoi komety regulyarno publikuyutsya v "The Comet Monthly" izdavaemom v GAISh MGU. Podrobnuyu informaciyu ob etom izdanii mozhno poluchit' po adresu: 119899, Moskva, Universitetskii prospekt, 13, A. Martys'.
Tablica 1. orbity sed'mogo yadra komety
Epoch = 1994 May 8.0 TT
T = 1998 Mar. 29.9945 TT
Peri. = 354.9892
e = 0.207491
Node = 220.9258 2000.0
q = 5.379569
Incl. = 5.8254
a = 6.788020
n = 0.0557300
P = 17.685 years
Tablica 2. Momenty stolknovenii yader komety s Yupiterom i ih polozhenie v "poezde".
| Nomer yadra | 17 | 15 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 07 | 06 | 05 | 01 |
| Polozhenie v "poezde" | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.28 | 0.40 | 0.51 | 0.69 | 0.79 | 0.86 | 1.00 |
| Moment stolknoveniya, iyul' | 17.6 | 18.3 | 18.8 | 19.4 | 19.9 | 20.8 | 21.3 | 21.6 | 22.3 |
Tablica 3. Efemerida sed'mogo yadra komety
| Date 1994 | a | d | d(a.e.) | r(a.e) | m1 | E | f |
| 7 Feb | 14h37.m14 | 16°23.'4 | 5.190 | 5.382 | 13.9 | 95.9° | 10.5° |
| 17 | 14 39.41 | 16 30.0 | 5.032 | 5.381 | 13.8 | 105.5 | 10.2 |
| 27 | 14 40.48 | 16 30.7 | 4.882 | 5.381 | 13.8 | 115.3 | 9.6 |
| 9 Mar | 14 40.32 | 16 25.3 | 4.744 | 5.380 | 13.7 | 125.4 | 8.6 |
| 19 | 14 38.97 | 16 13.9 | 4.622 | 5.380 | 13.6 | 135.8 | 7.4 |
| 29 | 14 36.51 | 15 56.9 | 4.520 | 5.380 | 13.6 | 146.3 | 5.9 |
| 8 Apr | 14 33.14 | 15 35.0 | 4.443 | 5.380 | 13.5 | 157.1 | 4.2 |
| 18 | 14 29.11 | 15 09.2 | 4.394 | 5.380 | 13.5 | 167.9 | 2.2 |
| 28 | 14 24.72 | 14 41.1 | 4.374 | 5.380 | 13.5 | 178.8 | 0.2 |
| 8 May | 14 20.31 | 14 12.3 | 4.384 | 5.381 | 13.5 | 170.3 | 1.8 |
| 18 | 14 16.21 | 13 44.7 | 4.423 | 5.382 | 13.5 | 159.6 | 3.8 |
| 28 | 14 12.72 | 13 20.0 | 4.489 | 5.383 | 13.6 | 149.0 | 5.6 |
| 7 Jun | 14 10.07 | 12 59.7 | 4.580 | 5.385 | 13.6 | 138.7 | 7.1 |
| 17 | 14 08.43 | 12 44.9 | 4.692 | 5.386 | 13.7 | 128.7 | 8.5 |
| 27 | 14 07.89 | 12 36.2 | 4.822 | 5.388 | 13.7 | 119.0 | 9.5 |
| 7 Jul | 14 08.48 | 12 33.8 | 4.964 | 5.390 | 13.8 | 109.6 | 10.2 |
| 17 | 14 10.19 | 12 37.6 | 5.114 | 5.392 | 13.9 | 100.4 | 10.7 |
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Publikacii s klyuchevymi slovami:
komety - Yupiter - Efemerida
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