Solnechnaya aktivnost' i ee geoeffektivnost'10.03.1997 17:20 | E. V. Kononovich, V.N. Ishkov/Vselennaya i My
Prodolzhaem publikaciyu osnovnyh indeksov solnechnoi aktivnosti i svyazannyh s nei yavlenii v okolozemnom kosmicheskom prostranstve i na Zemle. Zakanchivaetsya solnechnyi cikl 22 - cikl mnogochislennyh neozhidannostei i otkrytii, razocharovanii i peresmotra nashih, kazalos' by, okonchatel'no ustanovivshihsya vzglyadov na prirodu aktivnosti Solnca. Rekordno korotkaya faza rosta (2,75 goda), fakt, chto vse samye moshnye vspyshechnye sobytiya proizoshli v maksimal'noi faze solnechnoi aktivnosti, a ne na fazah spada i rosta, poyavlenie v iyune 1991 goda samoi moshnoi vo vspyshechnom otnoshenii gruppy pyaten za vse vremya nablyudenii Solnca, v kotoroi proizoshlo stol'ko zhe moshnyh solnechnyh vspyshek, skol'ko osushestvilos' za ves' colnechnyi cikl 21 - vot daleko ne polnyi perechen' "syurprizov" tekushego cikla solnechnoi aktivnosti. Na risunke priveden hod razvitiya tekushego cikla v chislah solnechnyh pyaten i v potokah solnechnogo radioizlucheniya na volne 10,7 sm - naibolee populyarnyh indeksov solnechnoi aktivnosti. Dlya postroeniya grafikov ispol'zovalis' sglazhennye za 13 mesyacev velichiny. Hod razvitiya cikla 22 izobrazhen v sravnenii s predydushimi i gryadushimi solnechnymi ciklami.
Itak, 1994 god yavilsya tret'im godom spada aktivnosti solnechnogo cikla 22. Vspyshechnaya aktivnost' za ves' rassmatrivaemyi period ostavalas' na nizkom urovne: vsego tri bol'shie vspyshki rentgenovskogo balla, prevyshayushego M5, byli zaregistrirovany za tri goda; po opticheskomu ballu 2B bol'shih vspyshek tozhe osushestvilos' tri - ih osnovnye harakteristiki i geoeffektivnost' privedeny v tabl. 1. Syuda zhe dobavleny i geoeffektivnye vspyshki men'shih ballov.
Vspyshka 9 iyulya 1996 g. - pervaya vspyshka rentgenovskogo balla H s noyabrya 1992 g., chto tol'ko podcherkivaet anomal'nost' tekushego cikla solnechnoi aktivnosti - na faze spada ne proizoshlo ni odnoi vspyshki rentgenovskogo balla H. Vspyshka 7 aprelya 1997 g. - pervaya bol'shaya (v opticheskom diapazone) vspyshka v gruppe pyaten novogo 23-go cikla solnechnoi aktivnosti. Ona osushestvilas' v slabom magnitnom pole, poetomu ee rentgenovskii ball sootvetstvuet maloi vspyshke, odnako ee geoeffektivnost' obespechili soputstvuyushie ei geodinamicheskie yavleniya: moshnyi vybros veshestva (tranzient) i radiovspleski II i IV tipov, yavlyayushiesya otrazheniem rasprostraneniya udarnoi volny i vozmusheniya v korone Solnca.
Fevral'skaya 1994 goda vspyshka byla istochnikom odnogo iz samyh bol'shih protonnyh sobytii 22 cikla (tret'ego po velichine potoka protonov s energiei > 10 MeV v maksimume 21.02/0900 UT). Dlitel'nost' protonnogo sobytiya byla pochti dvoe sutok. Maksimum potoka protonov sovpadaet s prihodom k Zemle mezhplanetnoi udarnoi volny ot etoi zhe vspyshki, vzaimodeistvie kotoroi s magnitosferoi Zemli porodilo ochen' bol'shuyu magnitnuyu buryu. V 1995 godu na Solnce osushestvilos' dva protonnyh sobytiya: odno iz nih bylo zaregistrirovano 22 aprelya 1995 goda. Protony s E >10 MeV poyavilis' v okolozemnom kosmicheskom prostranstve posle solnechnoi vspyshki balla M7,1/2F c nachalom 22/1045 UT, maksimuma izlucheniya vspyshka dostigla v 1159 UT i zakonchilas' v 1208 UT. Koordinaty vspyshki S00 W85 blagopriyatstvovali bystromu prihodu solnechnyh protonov k Zemle, odnako impul'snyi harakter rentgenovskogo vspleska predopredelil nebol'shoi po velichine potok protonov, vsego 2 pfu v maksimume potoka 22/1500UT. Vtoroe, bolee moshnoe protonnoe sobytie, osushestvilos' 20 oktyabrya posle solnechnoi vspyshki, kotoraya soprovozhdalas' radioizluchenem II i IV tipov. Potok protonov c E>10 MeV dostig okrestnostei Zemli 20.10 v 0825 UT, i maksimum byl uzhe v 63 pfu 20/1210 UT, konec sobytiya - 20/2350 UT.
Naibolee znachitel'nym sobytiem 1994 goda byla vnezapnaya krupnomasshtabnaya perestroika magnitnyh struktur yuzhnogo polushariya Solnca 14 aprelya. Nablyudat' eto novoe yavlenie na Solnce udalos' s pomosh'yu rentgenovskogo teleskopa na yaponskom nauchnom sputnike "'oko". Vybros nebol'shogo po razmeram volokna na yugo-zapade solnechnogo diska v nachale sutok 14.04 privel k polnoi perestroike rentgenovskoi kartiny yuzhnogo polushariya Solnca. Arochnye rentgenovskie struktury, obrazovavshiesya v rezul'tate perestroiki, ohvatili pochti vse yuzhnoe polusharie Solnca i byli vidny v techenie posleduyushih 7 sutok. Vybros koronal'nogo veshestva (tranzient, CME, coronal mass ejection - prinyatye v nauchnoi literature terminy), kotoryi, bez somneniya, soprovozhdal eto yavlenie, porodil mezhplanetnoe vozmushenie, dostigshee Zemli 16 aprelya. Vnezapnyi geomagnitnyi impul's (sledstvie vozdeistviya bystrogo mezhplanetnogo vozmusheniya na magnitosferu Zemli), otmechennyi nazemnymi geomagnitnymi observatoriyami 16/2004 UT dal nachalo bol'shoi geomagnitnoi bure, dlivsheisya chut' men'she sutok. Po vsei vidimosti, takie sobytiya vozmozhny, kogda vybros volokna proishodit na vysokih shirotah, vne zony pyatnoobrazovaniya, gde magnitnye polya tol'ko fonovye. V etom sluchae uzly vspyshechnogo processa, kotorye obrasheny k polyusu (vspyshechnaya lenta), mogut rasprostranyat'sya cherez polyus do zony pyatnoobrazovaniya na nevidimoi storone solnechnogo diska. Eshe odno takoe sobytie, veroyatno, proizoshlo 31 iyulya 1992 goda v severo-vostochnom sektore vidimogo solnechnogo diska. K sozhaleniyu, poka takie sobytiya mozhno vyyavit' tol'ko po kartinkam v myagkom rentgene, chto stavit vopros o vvedenii v Sluzhbu Solnca regulyarnogo provedeniya takih nablyudenii.
Bol'shaya magnitnaya burya, zaregistrirovannaya 7-8 aprelya 1995 goda, po-vidimomu, yavilas' sledstviem odnovremennogo vozdeistviya na Zemlyu geoeffektivnoi koronal'noi dyry (KD) i vybrosa utrom 5 aprelya solnechnogo volokna s koordinatami S15 W24. Planetarnyi Ap-indeks dostig znacheniya 74, a v Moskve - 90.
Malye magnitnye buri byli, v osnovnom, povtoryayushimisya i ih istochniki - solnechnye koronal'nye dyry. Odnoi iz neozhidannostei proshedshego 22-go cikla yavilis' dlitel'nye rekurrentnye magnitnye buri nachala 1994 goda, soprovozhdavshiesya vozrastaniem potokov vysokoenergichnyh elektronov s energiyami E > 2MeV, kotorye registriruyutsya na geostacionarnyh vysotah. V yanvare dlitel'nost' takoi magnitnoi buri sostavila 8 sutok (11-18.01), v fevrale - 12 (5-16.02), v marte - 17 (2-18.03), v aprele - 14 (2-15.04), v mae - 10 (1-10.05) i poslednii period - 9 sutok (28.05-05.06). Takie dlitel'nye periody magnitnyh bur' poslednii raz nablyudalis' v 19-m cikle solnechnoi aktivnosti. Istochnikom etih dlitel'nyh magnitnyh bur' yavilas' bol'shaya koronal'naya dyra v yuzhnom polusharii Solnca, soedinennaya s prakticheski postoyanno sushestvuyushei polyarnoi KD. Odnako poka ne yasen fizicheskii mehanizm, obespechivshii vysokuyu geoeffektivnst' dannoi koronal'noi dyre.
V tabl. 2 privodyatsya ezhemesyachnye znacheniya chisel Vol'fa, potoka radioizlucheniya na volne 10,7 sm, geomagnitnogo indeksa Ar, a takzhe svedeniya o kolichestve solnechnyh vspyshek.
Tablica 1. Naibolee znachitel'nye vspyshki i vyzvannye imi yavleniya
| Data |
Nachalo UT |
Dlit. min |
Koord. j |
Koord. l |
Ball |
Pr, pfu |
Magnitnye buri |
| 02.01.94 | 22:48 | 37 | N12 | E16 | SN/M6.5 | ||
| 16.01.94 | 23:06 | 58 | N04 | E71 | 1B/M6.1 | ||
| 20.02.94 | 01:04 | >120 | N09 | W02 | 3B/M4.0 | 10000 | OBMB 21-22.02 |
| 19.10.94 | 20:47 | 184 | N12 | W24 | 1F/M3.2 | 35 | UMB 22-24.10 |
| 14.12.94 | 05:35 | >20 | S10 | W07 | 1N/M2.5 | MMB 15-16.12 | |
| 03.02.95 | 01:35 | >20 | S14 | E32 | 2B/M4.3 | ||
| 04.02.95 | 15:44 | >15 | S16 | E07 | 2B/M2.6 | MMB 07-08.02 | |
| 22.04.95 | 11:28 | 31 | S00 | W85 | 2F/M7.1 | 2 | |
| 20.10.95 | 05:54 | 117 | S09 | W55 | 1F/M1.5 | 63 | |
| 09.07.96 | 09:05 | 48 | S10 | W30 | 1B/X2.6 | ||
| 07.04.97 | 13:50 | 60 | S30 | E19 | 3N/C6.8 | UMB 10-11.04 |
Opticheskii ball vspyshek: F - slabaya, N - normal'naya, V - yarkaya; cifra pered bukvoi harakterizuet ploshad', j - geliograficheskaya shirota, l - uglovoe rasstoyanie ot central'nogo meridiana. Pr - potok solnechnyh protonov v maksimume v edinicah potoka protonov pfu - chislo protonov cherez 1 sm2 za 1 s v steradiane. MMB, UMB, BMB, OBMB - malaya, umerennaya, bol'shaya i ochen' bol'shaya magnitnye buri.
Tablica 2. Srednemesyachnye harakteristiki solnechnoi i geomagnitnoi aktivnosti s 1994 goda.
|
Mesyacy Indeksy |
I | II | III | IV | V | VI | VII | VIII | IX | X | XI | XII | Srednie za god |
| 1994 | |||||||||||||
| W | 57.8 | 35.5 | 31.7 | 16.1 | 17.8 | 28.0 | 35.1 | 22.5 | 25.7 | 44.0 | 18.0 | 26.2 | 29.9 |
| F10.7 | 115.0 | 99.6 | 90.4 | 79.1 | 79.9 | 77.3 | 74.5 | 76.0 | 79.0 | 87.7 | 80.9 | 84.1 | |
| Ap | 15 | 30 | 24 | 29 | 26 | 14 | 11 | 8 | 12 | 22 | 14 | 13 | |
| >M4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| M1-M4 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 21 |
| Vsego | 217 | 67 | 111 | 60 | 40 | 56 | 81 | 101 | 72 | 117 | 45 | 99 | 1066 |
| 1995 | |||||||||||||
| W | 24.2 | 29.9 | 31.1 | 14.0 | 14.5 | 15.6 | 14.5 | 14.3 | 11.8 | 21.2 | 9.0 | 10.0 | 17.5 |
| F10.7 | 82.7 | 85.6 | 85.1 | 77.7 | 75.6 | 73.8 | 73.8 | 73.8 | 72.0 | 77.9 | 74.2 | 72.6 | 77.1 |
| Ap | 14 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 18 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 13.7 |
| >M4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| M1-M4 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| Vsego | 82 | 95 | 77 | 42 | 69 | 66 | 29 | 37 | 23 | 99 | 14 | 6 | 639 |
| 1996 | |||||||||||||
| W | 11.5 | 4.4 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 5.6 | 11.8 | 8.8 | 14.0 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 18.6 | 12.7 | 8.7 |
| F10.7 | 74.5 | 71.6 | 70.7 | 69.6 | 70.1 | 69.6 | 71.2 | 72.4 | 69.4 | 69.3 | 78.7 | 72.4* | 71.6* |
| Ap | 9 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 12 |
| >M4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| M1-M4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| Vsego | 14 | 3 | 15 | 34 | 21 | 16 | 54 | 31 | 3 | 0 | 191* | ||
| 1997 | |||||||||||||
| W | 6.5* | 7.6* | 8.8* | 15.8* | 18.5* | 0 | |||||||
| F10.7 | 74.0* | 73.8* | 73.5* | 74.5* | |||||||||
| Ap | 8 | 10 | 7 | 10* | |||||||||
| >M4 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||||
| M1-M4 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||||
| Vsego |
* - predvaritel'nye dannye. Dlya W, F10.7 i Ap v stolbce "God" privedeny srednegodovye znacheniya, dlya ostal'nyh - summa za god. ">M4" oznachaet chislo vspyshek, soprovozhdavshihsya potokom myagkogo rentgenovskogo izlucheniya (1-8 A) bolee 4x10-5 Vt/m2 u Zemli (sm. "Vselennaya i my", N1).
Solnechnaya aktivnost' s 1954 po 1995 gg. i prognoz do 2012 goda. Prognoz predstoyashih ciklov solnechnoi aktivnosti (23-24) byl predstavlen na dekabr'skoi konferencii solnechnikov 1995 g. v GAISh. Rezul'taty privedeny na risunke vmeste s dannymi dlya chetyreh poslednih ciklov. Sploshnoi liniei izobrazhen hod chisel Vol'fa, a punktirom - znacheniya potoka radioizlucheniya na chastote 2800 MGc (10.7 sm), kak izvestno, horosho korreliruyushie s chislami pyaten, a takzhe s intensivnost'yu ul'trafioletovogo izlucheniya Solnca. Posle utochneniya epohi minimuma cikla 22 (oboznachim ee H) krivye ciklov 23-24 nado sdvinut' vpravo na H-1996.8. (E. V. Kononovich i dr., Solnechnye dannye. Stat'i i soobsheniya. 1995-1996. s. 33-37. SPb., 1997).
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Publikacii s klyuchevymi slovami:
Solnechnaya aktivnost' - Solnechnaya vspyshka - Magnitnaya burya
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